Today’s player report: stat-based picks, sent the moment the markets open.

1. AROUND EVENSa harder line, a bigger return
2. AL

   Armand Laurienté 1+ shots on target

   Winger · BOBologna v SASassuolo Tough match-up give up the 5th-fewest shots on target of 20 0010122022 1.0 a game
   EVS2.07 BetMGM 6 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
3. EE

   Edu Expósito 2+ shots

   Central midfielder · ESEspanyol v SESevilla Even match-up give up the 8th-most shots of 20 2121311333 2.0 a game
   11/82.38 BetMGM 6 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
4. GB

   Gleison Bremer 1+ shots

   Centre-back · JUJuventus v ACAC Milan Even match-up give up the 8th-fewest shots of 20 0202131321 1.5 a game
   EVS2.05 BetMGM 8 of 10 games 5 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
5. LONGER PRICES3/1 and up, record still checked
6. JT

   James Tarkowski 1+ shots on target

   Centre-back · EVEverton v MAMan Utd Even match-up give up the 8th-fewest shots on target of 20 1010011001 0.5 a game
   4.904.90 BetMGM 5 of 10 games 3 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
7. ALSO ON THIS SLATEranked on record
8. FR

   Fabian Rieder 2+ fouls committed

   Attacking midfielder · EIEintracht Frankfurt v FCFC Augsburg Tough match-up give up the 3rd-fewest fouls of 18 1151220202 1.6 a game
   7/42.75 bet365 5 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro
9. BO

   Bright Osayi-Samuel To be carded

   Full-back · BIBirmingham City v WOWolves Soft match-up give up the 1st-most cards of 24 0000010111 0.4 a game
   13/53.60 bet365 4 of 10 games 1 of 10 for a typical starter Player stats → Pro
10. JO

    Jon Ander Olasagasti 1+ shots on target

    Central midfielder · MÁMálaga CF v LELevante UD Soft match-up give up the 1st-most shots on target of 20 0001101012 0.6 a game
    11/102.10 bet365 5 of 10 games 2 of 10 for a typical starter Shot map → Pro
11. LS

    Luke Shaw 1+ fouls won

    Full-back · EVEverton v MAMan Utd Even match-up give up the 8th-most fouls of 20 1131121001 1.1 a game
    11/102.10 bet365 8 of 10 games 6 of 10 for a typical starter Foul map → Pro

Baseline = the share of player-games where a starter playing 60+ minutes met the same line, over finished fixtures in that league's most recent full season. Hit rates and match-ups are free — the model's verdict is the paid tool. See every player on the slate →